Q: What is an emergent process and what effect is there on the system?
An emergent process is a process whose form unfolds/emerges while it is being executed. It is the opposite of a designed process, because the form of a designed process is defined before it is executed. An emergent process starts with some definitions of goals and some first workitems. Then the process is started to be executed. Later in the process execution, after the first results have been achieved, the process is changed, so that additional/more detailed goals and/or workitems are defined, removed, prioritized higher or lower and/or planned, assign a different process owner or process members, new deadlines. Furthermore emergent processes may be split/merged while they are already in execution. Still the workitems are not independent from each other, because they are connected within the emergent process and contribute towards a common goal. So taking all measures to ensure that a process is still able to reach its goal even under changed circumstances is what is necessary here. We call this to adapt the process or the case.
The effect on the system is that there must be no distinction between a process design time and a process runtime. The design time is the runtime and the runtime is the design time. Any process system that distinguishes process design time and process runtime is not fit for this task. The process system must be designed from the beginning to be adaptive. Furthermore it is not sufficient to plan with tasks and relationship between tasks, because this process language is not flexible enough.
Q. How can work be unpredictable? How do you handle that?
Work can be unpredictable, because it is not possible to predict which results the first steps of the work will yield and succeeding steps depend on the outcome of preceding steps. Theoretically one could model all possible outcomes and all possible reactions to all outcomes – at least try to. This is modeling a scenario like for example a military battle scenario. However this investment is not economical in most real life situations and processes. Therefore it is often better to define a goal on a high level and leave the detailed planning of the steps that lead to the high level goal until later and/or to different experts. Modeling a complete scenario like modeling a military battle scenario still has many unpredictable components like unexpected events, ambushes, different than expected landscape, enemy troop moves etc. Generally spoken the sources of unpredictability in my opinion are these:
- Decisions of individuals that cannot be predicted
- Complexity of a situation, that cannot be analyzed completely a priori and
- Unpredicted events like an economic of financial crisis, rapid change in politics and other similar unpredicted events – even natural events.
- Limitations in individual knowledge.
The handling of the situation must be to perform a new evaluation of currently planned measures in the light of their contribution to a previously defined goal. This means to adapt the process as already mentioned above.
In my experience limitations of individual knowledge is the most common reason for unpredictability. In practical terms work is unpredictable, if there is noone, that knows all the details, even if they could – theoretically – be known. And as we all know this is how it is. We all know only parts. If we want to make progress quite naturally we want and need to explore previously inkown areas. To us it makes no difference if these areas are only unkown to ourselves or generally unkown. The effect is the same: We cannot plan the details ahead.
For example I want to write a software program and I want to integrate a certain functionality. I may have 2-3 modules, that could do the job, but I do not know which fits best, until I just try it. After I have tried, I know. Then I can decide and plan all the succeeding steps.